Research/Terra/ 381719
Task evidence / observed-flood-population

Calculate the total population affected by floods in Peru during February 2018

PassComputational taskUnpublished draft
Download evidence JSON ↓

The question

381719
Calculate the total population affected by floods in Peru during February 2018
Exact submitted task and declared adaptations
Calculate the total population affected by floods in Peru during February 2018

Task conventions: Use the frozen 2018 Peru population raster and supplied event flood_peru. Population source values are people per original cell. Keep its entire original grid; no population resampling. Sample the original flood raster at each original population-cell centre by containing pixel (nearest alignment); no max/bilinear interpolation or inferred flooded fractions. GFD bands are 1 flooded (0/1), 2 duration in days, 3 clear-view count, 4 clear-view fraction, 5 permanent water (0/1). Observe a cell only if population is finite/unmasked, bands 1,3,5 are finite/unmasked, clear views >0, and permanent water=0. Observed band1=1 is flooded; observed band1=0 is non-flooded. Everything else is unknown/excluded, never non-flooded or zero population. Calculate original full geographic-cell WGS84 ellipsoidal meridian/parallel area in km2; density is counts/area and counts are density*area as appropriate. Sum original/derived population over flooded cells. For the density comparison use group population divided by group physical area, not an unweighted mean of densities. This explicitly defines affected as people in observed flooded cell centres, not proven personal impacts. The event covers only part of the country/month: report the observed-footprint result, never an exhaustive national total. The supplied Bangladesh event's footprint includes northern Bangladesh despite its Tibetan event label; inspect actual coverage. Permanent water, cloud gaps and unobserved regions do not establish absence of flooding. No current source substitutions. Internal benchmark only.



Publish a full native-grid selected-population raster: people per cell for observed flooded cells, zero for observed non-flooded cells, NoData elsewhere. Also publish classification (1 flooded, 0 non-flooded, NoData unknown) on the same grid. End with fenced JSON {count:observed flooded cell count,unknown_count:all other unobserved/excluded population-grid cells,coverage_note:string,selection:{collectionId,itemId,assetKey},classification:{collectionId,itemId,assetKey},metrics:{selected_people:number,nonflood_people:number,selected_area_km2:number,nonflood_area_km2:number,selected_density:number,nonflood_density:number}}. Label classification unit as dimensionless and selected population as people per cell. Maps optional. Do not round machine-readable metrics to integers. Explicitly state incomplete country coverage and the 2018 source/event dates.

Delivery format: provide the answer object with all fields specified above as final_response on assess_result, alongside the inspected final artifact_refs. This replaces the JSON-code-block formatting requirement above. Blue attaches your explicit selection to the accepted final answer. Finish with a concise ordinary-language answer agreeing with that selected result; do not duplicate the JSON in chat.

Supplied immutable inputs:
[
  {
    "name": "Peru population count, WorldPop 2018",
    "edition": "2018 UN-adjusted population counts, aggregated to 1 km cells",
    "units": {
      "band1": "people per cell"
    },
    "collectionId": "blue-generated--[resource id withheld]",
    "itemId": "[resource id withheld]",
    "assetKey": "data"
  },
  {
    "name": "GFD observed flood 4569, 2018-02-01 to 2018-02-21",
    "edition": "Original five-band GFD v1 benchmark snapshot, not a current flood map; benchmark-only use",
    "units": {
      "band1": "binary flooded flag",
      "band2": "days",
      "band3": "observations",
      "band4": "fraction",
      "band5": "binary permanent-water flag"
    },
    "collectionId": "blue-generated--[resource id withheld]",
    "itemId": "[resource id withheld]",
    "assetKey": "data"
  }
]

Outcome & verification

Independent artifact and delivery checks passed.

Duration
37m 36s
Recorded Blue tool calls
65
Total tokens
4,860,967
Model cost
Not recorded
Application revision
d50497ea9084f29c91b05406688f87035df98d8a
Release
terra-geobenchx-v1

Recorded final answer

I found 2,659.59 people in 113 observed flooded cells in Peru, using the frozen WorldPop 2018 population grid and the supplied GFD event for 2018-02-01 to 2018-02-21. Important limit: this is only the observed event footprint, not a full national February 2018 total. Another 3,326,582 population-grid cells were unknown or excluded, so non-observed areas were not counted as non-flooded. The selected-population and classification rasters are published on the map if you want to review them. ### Limitations - The GFD event snapshot covers only part of Peru and only 2018-02-01 to 2018-02-21, so the result is an observed-footprint estimate rather than an exhaustive February 2018 national flood total. - Observed flooded population means people located in population cells whose centres fall in valid observed flooded pixels after the required exclusions; it does not prove personal impacts. - This raster is limited to the observed footprint of the supplied February 2018 event and leaves unobserved, cloud-gapped, and permanent-water cells as NoData. - This classification only describes valid observed cell-centre status within the supplied event footprint and does not treat unobserved areas as non-flooded. - Observed-footprint only: the supplied flood event covers only part of Peru and only 2018-02-01 to 2018-02-21, so this is not an exhaustive national February 2018 flood total. - Unknown or excluded cells include masked population cells, permanent water, zero-clear-view cells, and cells with missing flood observations; they are excluded rather than treated as non-flooded. - Affected here means people in observed flooded population-cell centres, not proven personal impacts. - Population values are people per original cell for 2018 and do not prove individual impacts. - The event footprint only covers part of Peru and only 2018-02-01 to 2018-02-21. - Cloud gaps, unobserved regions, and permanent-water exclusions remain unknown rather than non-flooded. - Flood status is sampled at each original population-cell centre from the original flood raster by nearest containing pixel. - Unknown and excluded cells remain NoData in the final rasters. - Physical area uses exact original geographic-cell WGS84 ellipsoidal area in km2. - Densities are group population divided by group physical area within observed valid cells only. - The final answer selects the published raster artifacts and reports observed-footprint metrics rather than an exhaustive national total.

Independent checks

These checks are separate from the agent's own assessment. A successful job or an assertion of success is not enough to pass.

Expected count
113
Reported count
113
Computation verified
Yes
Answer fulfilled
Yes
Full grading and rubric record
{
  "expectedCount": 113,
  "actualCount": 113,
  "expectedMetrics": {
    "selected_people": 2659.5894656293094,
    "nonflood_people": 826501.1746531725,
    "selected_area_km2": 92.91052422702717,
    "nonflood_area_km2": 16624.819734452987,
    "selected_density": 28.62527671386929,
    "nonflood_density": 49.71489543073636
  },
  "actualMetrics": {
    "nonflood_people": 826501.1746531725,
    "selected_people": 2659.5894656293094,
    "nonflood_density": 49.71489541397814,
    "selected_density": 28.6252766519842,
    "nonflood_area_km2": 16624.81974005699,
    "selected_area_km2": 92.91052442789078
  },
  "computationCorrect": true,
  "answerFulfilled": true,
  "adjudication": null,
  "qualification": null,
  "reasons": []
}

Recorded investigation findings

The agent's reported hypotheses and assessments, retained as evidence of its process—not independent proof that the answer is correct. Failed calls retain their requested verdict, not an accepted assessment.

run_trial · completed

Does the native-grid method preserve the population grid, classify observed flooded versus non-flooded cells correctly with unknowns left out, and produce additive population and area summaries on a representative Peru overlap area?

assess_trial · completed · assessment: sufficient

The trial preserved the full original Peru population grid at 1522 by 2199 cells with 0.0083333333 degree resolution and aligned the flood, clear-view, and permanent-water bands to that grid with nearest resampling. Outside the observed event footprint the aligned flood bands remained missing. The intermediate class_code used -1 as an internal sentinel for unknown or excluded cells, and the reclassify step converted those cells to NoData in the final classification output. The final classification produced 20,296 observed cells, with 113 flooded cells and 20,183 observed non-flooded cells; 3,326,582 population-grid cells remained unknown or excluded. The selected-population raster retained people per cell only for flooded cells, wrote zero for observed non-flooded cells, and left unknown cells as NoData. Exact trial summaries provide additive totals for observed population and observed area, so non-flooded population and area can be derived by subtraction without changing the method.

assess_result · failed · requested assessment: sufficient

The published native-grid outputs report 113 observed flooded population-grid cells in Peru for the supplied GFD observed flood 4569 event dated 2018-02-01 to 2018-02-21. Those flooded cells contain 2,659.5894656293094 people over 92.91052442789078 km2, for a flooded-group density of 28.6252766519842 people per km2. The observed non-flooded cells total 20,183 by subtraction from 20,296 observed valid cells, and they contain 826,501.1746531725 people over 16,624.81974005699 km2, for a non-flooded observed density of 49.71489541397814 people per km2. The remaining 3,326,582 cells on the full Peru population grid are unknown or excluded. Sources: Peru population count, WorldPop 2018 benchmark fixture (Blue-hosted WorldPop/CIESIN benchmark input; source revision not provided; retrieved 2026-10-07) and GFD observed flood 4569 benchmark fixture, 2018-02-01 to 2018-02-21 (Blue-hosted Global Flood Database/Cloud to Street benchmark input; source revision not provided; retrieved 2026-10-07).

assess_result · failed · requested assessment: sufficient

The published native-grid outputs report 113 observed flooded population-grid cells in Peru for the supplied GFD observed flood 4569 event dated 2018-02-01 to 2018-02-21. Those flooded cells contain 2,659.5894656293094 people over 92.91052442789078 km2, for a flooded-group density of 28.6252766519842 people per km2. The observed non-flooded cells total 20,183 by subtraction from 20,296 observed valid cells, and they contain 826,501.1746531725 people over 16,624.81974005699 km2, for a non-flooded observed density of 49.71489541397814 people per km2. The remaining 3,326,582 cells on the full Peru population grid are unknown or excluded. Sources: Peru population count, WorldPop 2018 benchmark fixture (Blue-hosted WorldPop/CIESIN benchmark input; source revision not provided; retrieved 2026-10-07) and GFD observed flood 4569 benchmark fixture, 2018-02-01 to 2018-02-21 (Blue-hosted Global Flood Database/Cloud to Street benchmark input; source revision not provided; retrieved 2026-10-07).

assess_result · completed · assessment: sufficient

The published native-grid outputs report 113 observed flooded population-grid cells in Peru for the supplied GFD observed flood 4569 event dated 2018-02-01 to 2018-02-21. Those flooded cells contain 2,659.5894656293094 people over 92.91052442789078 km2, for a flooded-group density of 28.6252766519842 people per km2. The observed non-flooded cells total 20,183 by subtraction from 20,296 observed valid cells, and they contain 826,501.1746531725 people over 16,624.81974005699 km2, for a non-flooded observed density of 49.71489541397814 people per km2. The remaining 3,326,582 cells on the full Peru population grid are unknown or excluded. Sources: Peru population count, WorldPop 2018 benchmark fixture (Blue-hosted WorldPop/CIESIN benchmark input; source revision not provided; retrieved 2026-10-07) and GFD observed flood 4569 benchmark fixture, 2018-02-01 to 2018-02-21 (Blue-hosted Global Flood Database/Cloud to Street benchmark input; source revision not provided; retrieved 2026-10-07).

assess_result · completed · assessment: sufficient

The published selected-population raster is the required native-grid output over Peru. It preserves the frozen 2018 population grid and publishes people per cell for observed flooded cells, zero for observed non-flooded cells, and NoData elsewhere.

assess_result · completed · assessment: sufficient

The published classification raster is the required native-grid 1/0/NoData output over Peru. It preserves the original population grid and records observed flooded cells as 1, observed non-flooded cells as 0, and all unknown or excluded cells as NoData.

Recorded workflow

  1. 01

    cell area

    Recorded raster-cell-area · succeeded

  2. 02

    class code

    Recorded raster-map-algebra · succeeded

  3. 03

    class final

    Recorded raster-map-algebra · succeeded

  4. 04

    class raw

    Recorded raster-reclassify · succeeded

  5. 05

    class stats

    Recorded raster-statistics · succeeded

  6. 06

    clear view

    Recorded raster-extract-band · succeeded

  7. 07

    clear view align

    Recorded raster-align · succeeded

  8. 08

    Observed flooded population raster

    Recorded output · succeeded

  9. 09

    Observed flood classification raster

    Recorded output · succeeded

  10. 10

    Observed flood classification summary

    Recorded output · succeeded

  11. 11

    Observed flooded population summary

    Recorded output · succeeded

  12. 12

    Observed flooded area summary

    Recorded output · succeeded

  13. 13

    Observed population summary

    Recorded output · succeeded

  14. 14

    Observed area summary

    Recorded output · succeeded

  15. 15

    Flood source

    Recorded source · succeeded

  16. 16

    flood flag

    Recorded raster-extract-band · succeeded

  17. 17

    flood flag align

    Recorded raster-align · succeeded

  18. 18

    observed area

    Recorded raster-map-algebra · succeeded

  19. 19

    observed area stats

    Recorded raster-statistics · succeeded

  20. 20

    observed mask

    Recorded raster-reclassify · succeeded

  21. 21

    observed pop

    Recorded raster-map-algebra · succeeded

  22. 22

    observed pop stats

    Recorded raster-statistics · succeeded

  23. 23

    perm water

    Recorded raster-extract-band · succeeded

  24. 24

    perm water align

    Recorded raster-align · succeeded

  25. 25

    Population source

    Recorded source · succeeded

  26. 26

    selected area

    Recorded raster-map-algebra · succeeded

  27. 27

    selected area stats

    Recorded raster-statistics · succeeded

  28. 28

    selected pop

    Recorded raster-map-algebra · succeeded

  29. 29

    selected pop stats

    Recorded raster-statistics · succeeded

  30. 30

    cell area

    Recorded raster-cell-area · succeeded

  31. 31

    class code

    Recorded raster-map-algebra · succeeded

  32. 32

    class final

    Recorded raster-map-algebra · succeeded

  33. 33

    class raw

    Recorded raster-reclassify · succeeded

  34. 34

    class stats

    Recorded raster-statistics · succeeded

  35. 35

    clear view

    Recorded raster-extract-band · succeeded

  36. 36

    clear view align

    Recorded raster-align · succeeded

  37. 37

    Flood subset

    Recorded source · succeeded

  38. 38

    flood flag

    Recorded raster-extract-band · succeeded

  39. 39

    flood flag align

    Recorded raster-align · succeeded

  40. 40

    observed area

    Recorded raster-map-algebra · succeeded

  41. 41

    observed area stats

    Recorded raster-statistics · succeeded

  42. 42

    observed mask

    Recorded raster-reclassify · succeeded

  43. 43

    observed pop

    Recorded raster-map-algebra · succeeded

  44. 44

    observed pop stats

    Recorded raster-statistics · succeeded

  45. 45

    perm water

    Recorded raster-extract-band · succeeded

  46. 46

    perm water align

    Recorded raster-align · succeeded

  47. 47

    Population subset

    Recorded source · succeeded

  48. 48

    selected area

    Recorded raster-map-algebra · succeeded

  49. 49

    selected area stats

    Recorded raster-statistics · succeeded

  50. 50

    selected pop

    Recorded raster-map-algebra · succeeded

  51. 51

    selected pop stats

    Recorded raster-statistics · succeeded

  52. 52

    Population subset

    Recorded output · succeeded

  53. 53

    selected area stats

    Recorded output · succeeded

  54. 54

    observed pop stats

    Recorded output · succeeded

  55. 55

    observed area stats

    Recorded output · succeeded

  56. 56

    flood flag align

    Recorded output · succeeded

  57. 57

    clear view align

    Recorded output · succeeded

  58. 58

    perm water align

    Recorded output · succeeded

  59. 59

    class code

    Recorded output · succeeded

  60. 60

    class final

    Recorded output · succeeded

  61. 61

    selected pop

    Recorded output · succeeded

  62. 62

    class stats

    Recorded output · succeeded

  63. 63

    selected pop stats

    Recorded output · succeeded

Activity

Recorded actions

Recorded observable actions only, not private reasoning. Raw payloads, geometry, private links and credentials are omitted; full evidence is retained privately. Activity/workflow lists bounded at 500 entries.

  1. Progress update

    I’ll set up the analysis brief, inspect the supplied sources, and run a small private test to confirm the native-grid method before I save the production workflow.

  2. get_analysis

    Recorded tool call · completed

  3. get_collection

    Recorded tool call · completed

  4. get_collection

    Recorded tool call · completed

  5. Progress update

    I found the two supplied rasters. One practical wrinkle is important: the flood snapshot’s declared extent only overlaps part of Peru, so the result has to stay an observed-footprint estimate, not a countrywide February total. Next I’m defining the exact native-grid method and checking it on a small private run.

  6. update_analysis_brief

    Recorded tool call · completed

  7. list_processors

    Recorded tool call · completed

  8. list_processors

    Recorded tool call · completed

  9. list_processors

    Recorded tool call · completed

  10. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  11. Progress update

    I found a workable processor set: extract the needed flood bands, align them to the population grid with nearest sampling, build the observed/unknown logic in map algebra, compute exact cell area on the original geographic grid, and summarize the resulting rasters. I’m checking the exact schemas now so the trial uses the real native-grid contracts rather than guessed parameters.

  12. describe_processors

    Recorded tool call · completed

  13. describe_processors

    Recorded tool call · completed

  14. describe_processors

    Recorded tool call · failed

  15. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  16. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  17. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  18. describe_processors

    Recorded tool call · completed

  19. describe_processors

    Recorded tool call · completed

  20. describe_processors

    Recorded tool call · completed

  21. search_knowledge

    Recorded tool call · completed

  22. search_knowledge

    Recorded tool call · completed

  23. describe_processors

    Recorded tool call · completed

  24. Progress update

    The first trial call was just an argument-shape mistake, not a data problem. I corrected the request layout and am rerunning the same test.

  25. run_trial

    Recorded tool call · completed

  26. update_analysis_brief

    Recorded tool call · completed

  27. Progress update

    The test run finished. Practical result first: the method does preserve the Peru population grid, keeps unknown cells out of the final rasters, and produces a valid flooded-cell selection. Important limitation: I still need the observed non-flooded totals from the same trial to confirm the full flooded-versus-non-flooded comparison before I save the production workflow. Next I’m inspecting those remaining trial outputs and then I’ll promote the tested method to the full Peru footprint.

  28. get_trial_report

    Recorded tool call · completed

  29. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  30. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  31. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  32. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  33. Progress update

    I have enough evidence that the cell matching works on the full Peru grid, including the key limitation that unknown cells stay out instead of becoming non-flooded. Next I’m pulling the full observed totals from the finished trial so I can lock the exact metrics into the production workflow and final assessment.

  34. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  35. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  36. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  37. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  38. Progress update

    The trial answered the key method question: the final classification and selected-population outputs behave correctly on the full Peru grid, and the observed flooded/non-flooded totals can now be derived exactly. Next I’m recording that trial judgment and saving the production workflow from this tested computation.

  39. assess_trial

    Recorded tool call · completed

  40. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  41. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  42. Progress update

    I’ve now confirmed the full observed totals from the trial, so the remaining work is no longer method design. The real next step is publishing this tested computation and checking the final artifact bindings.

  43. update_analysis_brief

    Recorded tool call · completed

  44. propose_workflow

    Recorded tool call · completed

  45. Progress update

    The saved draft is close, but the compiler flagged only bookkeeping on the fixed parameter paths. That is a method-description mistake, not a data or capability problem. I’m correcting those paths on the saved draft now.

  46. get_tool_help

    Recorded tool call · completed

  47. read_evidence

    Recorded tool call · completed

  48. get_analysis

    Recorded tool call · completed

  49. read_evidence

    Recorded tool call · completed

  50. revise_workflow

    Recorded tool call · completed

  51. Progress update

    The remaining blocker is clear now: the copied draft still carries the trial’s smaller source-area settings, even though the tested outputs already ran on the full Peru grid. I’m removing those leftover area limits and setting the workflow scope to the full Peru population grid.

  52. revise_workflow

    Recorded tool call · completed

  53. Progress update

    The method is now saved as a runnable full-Peru workflow. Important limitation stays the same: it still reports only the observed event footprint, not a national total. Next I’m running it and then I’ll inspect the published rasters and exact summary tables before I finalize the answer.

  54. execute_workflow

    Recorded tool call · completed

  55. Progress update

    The production run finished in the background. I’m inspecting the published rasters and summary tables now so the final answer uses the actual delivered artifacts, not the earlier trial copies.

  56. inspect_workflow_results

    Recorded tool call · completed

  57. Progress update

    The published run is there. I’m checking the final raster previews and summary tables from that exact run now, so the answer uses the delivered artifacts and not the earlier trial.

  58. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  59. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  60. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  61. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  62. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  63. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  64. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  65. Progress update

    I already have the production outputs. I’m just finishing the last bounded inspections needed to lock the final artifact IDs and exact summary numbers before I assess the result.

  66. inspect_workflow_results

    Recorded tool call · completed

  67. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  68. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  69. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  70. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  71. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  72. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  73. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  74. Progress update

    I’ve confirmed the final counts and the two published rasters. I’m making one last bounded check on the final area step so the density explanation is tied to the delivered run, not just the earlier trial.

  75. inspect_artifact

    Recorded tool call · completed

  76. Progress update

    I’ve verified the published rasters and summary tables from the final run. The result is ready to lock: 113 observed flooded population-grid cells, about 2,659.59 people in those cells, and 3,326,582 other grid cells left unknown or excluded. The real limitation is unchanged: this is only the observed footprint of the supplied 2018-02-01 to 2018-02-21 event, not a national February total.

  77. assess_result

    Recorded tool call · failed

  78. Progress update

    The result itself is done. I just need to restate the final checks in the exact acceptance-condition wording Blue expects, then I can lock the answer.

  79. assess_result

    Recorded tool call · failed

  80. Progress update

    Blue is being strict about matching the recorded acceptance text. I’m retrying with just the four exact metric conditions for this result.

  81. assess_result

    Recorded tool call · completed

  82. Progress update

    I’ve already locked the numeric answer. I’m now recording the two raster assessments Blue asked for, using the final published artifacts and the tested matching method they reproduce exactly.

  83. assess_result

    Recorded tool call · completed

  84. assess_result

    Recorded tool call · completed